Looking Back: End of Season Write-up

It's done. It's over. And if you're a Hawk fan like me, there's a sigh of relief accompanying that thought. We all knew it was going to be an uphill battle, tough sledding, a struggle, etc. etc. etc. I'll admit, I was disappointed at the 4-8 finish the team posted. This post is going to be a look back at some things that happened over the season, my thoughts on them, and a brief look ahead at next year. I'll be using some time this off-season to look more in-depth at what I feel for the team next year.


THE SEASON ON THE WHOLE:

Clearly 2012 was a rebuilding year for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  I didn't have any grand delusions of competing for a national title.  I had some blind fan hope that it might happen, but I realistically pegged the team as being a 7-5 team.  I had a hope that the team would surprise some of the prognosticators who were predicting a Mayan Apocalypse of a team, and do what most Ferentz teams do: just enough to become bowl eligible.  I had the team at 7-5 including losses to ISU, MSU, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska.

I figured that the D-line would come together and play aggressively knowing they had one of the better secondaries and linebacking corps backing them up.  I thought that James Vandenberg (JVB) would be primed to follow-up the success he had in 2011.  I was even excited about the coaching changes as I thought they were good changes to make.  And as I said before the season started, anytime a program can bring NFL quality coaching talent to the collegiate level, it can only mean good things.

What ended up happening was a dreadful 4-8 season, which nearly started out with a loss against NIU.  It did have an unbearable loss to ISU, a hearty win over Minnesota, and worrisome losses to Indiana, Purdue, and surprising showing (albeit a loss) against Nebraska.  The best story on the offense was not JVB hitting TE's or WR's for touchdowns (he threw 7 all season), but a walk-on FB who became an instant hero.  Sadly, Weisman's contributions were not super-human enough to really change the offense which ranked near the bottom in pretty much every statistical category.

Defensively, the team didn't fare much better.  The secondary was solid, but not flashy through much of the season.  The linebackers were competent, and effective, but should not have been asked to carry as much of the weight as they were.  The D-line fared well at times, and showed it's youth more often than not.  Inconsistency was the main story for the defense all season.  Actually, hot & cold may be a better way to describe them.  Even during the same game the defense could look unstoppable one drive, and look like Swiss cheese the next.  Repetition on the practice field can and will do wonders for this unit next season.


FEEL GOOD STORY OF THE YEAR:

I can tell this whole story in 2 words: Mark Weisman.  Weisman started off the season as the backup FB behind Brad Rogers.  Not only was he the backup, he was a walk-on to boot.  None of that mattered to the Air Force transfer.  All  he did was do what he does best: tote the rock...HARD.

Iowa fans are familiar with the seemingly supernatural phenomenon that strikes the members of Iowa's offensive backfield known as Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God (AIRBHG for short).  The truncated version of this story is that since 2008, no Iowa starting running back has graduated from the program, and very few have made it a whole season listed as the starter.  Whether off-the-field issues, injuries, or poor performance on-the-field, the Iowa backfield has struggled at times under Ferentz.  Which is odd considering his run-first offensive attitude, and penchant for building great offensive lines out of great offensive linemen.

In the case of Weisman, he was the beneficiary and victim of AIRBHG.  He benefited when Canzeri tore his ACL last spring, when Coker left the program last year, Garmon was arrested before arriving on campus for drug possession, and finally when Bullock went down hurt in the game vs. UNI.  At one point in that game he had 3 carries for 3 TDs as the starting FB.  Once Bullock was injured, the RB duties went to Weisman and he rumbled over the UNI defense to the tune of 113 yards on 24 attempts.  His bruising style of running, punishing anyone in the secondary that dared try to stop him, won him the adoration of Hawkeye Nation that day.

Weisman was solid for the next few games.  His performance in the Minnesota game helped bring Floyd back to Iowa City for the first time in a few seasons.  He gave the offense something it was lacking: an identity.  JVB had only thrown 1 TD on the season going into that game, and was struggling in Davis' new system.  Weisman was the focal point of the offense for his brief stint as starter.  So much so, that he was promised a scholarship for next year.  Then AIRBHG reared its ugly head again and caused Weisman to suffer a tweaked ankle in a gritty victory over MSU.  His season was pretty much done after that.

Next year, look for Weisman to explode out of the backfield and give the Iowa offense something it can build from as the year progresses.  We'll hear more "Weisman for Heisman" chants from the Iowa faithful, and while I think Weisman will be good, he won't be quite that good.


BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE SEASON:

This one has been even more well documented than Wiesman's ascent on the team, but after throwing 25 TDs his junior year, everyone who knew anything about Iowa football expected James Vandenberg to have a fair amount of success in 2012.  With Davis coming to town after coaching Colt McCoy I thought it seemed like a great fit for JVB.  Davis is known for putting his QBs in the shotgun, which is where JVB has always seemed the most comfortable.

Needless to say, JVB's 7 TD passes was well short of his 2011 output, and he seemed to struggle with reads.  He didn't see open receivers for big plays, he misfired on several throws, and just seemed overwhelmed in the pocket.  To his credit, he didn't let the public get to him much.  He fought the whole season even though the media, and the fans were scrutinizing his every move.  One thing was made clear last season: JVB is no Ricky Stanzi.

A second thing was made clear as well.  We have no idea who the starting QB will be next season.  Rudock was listed as the #2 all season, yet he never took a snap.  Even when the game was out of reach (PSU, Mich, etc.) JVB stayed in.  The prevailing theory is that Rudock is not the heir apparent, and since the other QBs on roster were redshirting, that means that Ferentz didn't want to burn their redshirts pressing them into action in garbage time.  I'll take a more in-depth view of the QB situation in a future update.


EFFECTS OF COACHES: 

2012 was the first season under Ferentz that the OC was not named O'Keefe and the the DC was not named Norm.  There were also additions of Lamar Woods, and Brian Ferentz (who had coached the Patriots TE's in the NFL the year before).  As mentioned before, I thought that Davis would be a great fit at the OC position, and I was excited to see Parker (not Norm), get the DC position.

Parker 2.0 didn't do a terrible job of coaching in 2012.  Granted the defense was not up to its normal par, but it seemed to show up better than the offense did.  I'm going to give him a first-year pass for the performance of the defense.  Now that he's had a year to evaluate what works and what doesn't in certain situations he can better place his players for success.  The secondary did well under him, and the linebackers proved to be more than capable in his schemes.  There was far more base defense than I was anticipating going into the season, and I expect that to continue in 2013 as well.  Parker is taking the time necessary to ensure that his players know their roles in the defense and letting the backups grow into starting roles.  With some additional talent recruited in, he should have a solid unit in 2013.  At the very least, the D-line should improve and be a focal point for Parker in the off-season.

The offense...where to start?  The offense itself was almost as big a disappointment as a unit as JVB was as a QB.  Were it not for Weisman, and some pretty impressive O-line play, I think I might have thought far differently about the offense last year.  Davis had all the tools necessary to be successful as the OC at Iowa given his proclivities when he was at Texas.  He had solid TEs, a returning QB with some big-game experience, a solid O-line, and seemingly capable receivers.  What the season ended with was under-utilized TEs, a QB who struggled to understand the new passing game, and an O-line that did everything it could to provide the offense with time and protection and dropped balls from the receivers.

Last season was a chance to see if the offensive woes of the past were a by-product of the KOK era, or if it was Ferentz all along.  For most people, the proof is in the pudding: Ferentz and his ultra-conservative style of coaching were the culprits of the offensive woes.  I'm more prone to giving the benefit of the doubt to Ferentz, because I think he's probably one of the best coaches Iowa has seen in football.  That said, if Davis doesn't go all-out with the offense next year, I'll know Ferentz is holding the keys and not to expect much offensive creativity as long as he's the head-man at Iowa.

Looking at the head-man with a bit more scrutiny, I have to say either Ferentz is losing his edge, or he's the most diabolical head-coach in the game when it comes to long-term planning.  This season had several head-scratching calls from the coach including not benching JVB when the game was already lost, odd choices in short-yardage situations (even for Ferentz), and interesting moves with his assistant coaches.  Next year should answer that question.  If the team falters again, he's losing his edge.  If the team shows signs of success he's a long-term planning genius.


THE PLAYERS' CONTRIBUTIONS:

As much as college football has become a discussion of X's and O's, coaches, styles, and dynasties it's important to remember that the players are college students.  Most of them are under the legal drinking age, and many are away from home and parental supervision for the first time.  This new found freedom can be overwhelming for someone of that age (I've seen it happen at smaller schools).

What I see with some of the players on the Iowa team is a lack of determination and work-ethic.  The best players of the Ferentz era were all dedicated, hardworking players who demonstrated a willingness to listen, learn, and wait.  The waiting is the most important factor in all of this, and I'll explain why.

Ferentz and Iowa are developmentally minded.  When you come into the system, you have to learn your role, what's expected of you, and how to perform consistently.  Until you can demonstrate that capacity, you wait your turn to play.  When the opportunity to succeed and play arises, you step in and fulfill your role.  Early on during Ferentz's tenure, he had some memorably stellar players that weren't necessarily the most highly talented or recruited coming out of high school.

Based off the success those players were able to achieve (think of Banks coming up #2 in the Heisman voting, the trip to the Orange Bowl in 2003, Drew Tate shouldering the team when AIRBHG struck in 2004, and the linebacking of Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway) the program was better able to recruit more talented players.  The problem with recruiting talented players, is that they want to prove their talents in a timely manner.  Many of them are looking at college as a means to the NFL and they want to make their impact known ASAP.  Programs like Oregon, OSU, Michigan, Florida, and USC give talented players a chance to get on the field immediately and make an impact.  Iowa (Ferentz) expects you to learn your role, and show you can be successful consistently before you can get on the field.

Due to the success on the recruiting trail, Iowa's depth chart had some talent on the bench, that could readily step-in as the "next man in."  The two weakest position spots on Iowa's roster right now are RB and D-line.  Why?  In one word: attrition.  Players left the team because they didn't want to wait to see playing time, or they ran into issues off-the-field.  This put a gap in the developmental process, and you can see it manifesting itself on the field now.  Take LB James Morris for example.  Due to attrition of the linebackers his freshman year he was pressed into service before he was ready.  He still hasn't risen to the level of success fans would like to see out of him, and I'm sure he's capable of.  A question for thought though: would Morris have seen the field as a starter were it not for the injuries?  How successful could he be now if he had time to develop his skills and talents to play his role on the defense?  Attrition through injuries and disciplinary problems has the RB position is in shambles.

So what's the issue you ask?  In a program like Iowa's, when there's attrition and players leaving the developmental process, it requires you to spend recruiting resources on replacing that player before you'd planned.  Which essentially means doing the same job twice...which is inefficient (Think of the amount of RB recruits Iowa has brought in since 2008 and how those scholarships could've been used).  The other option is to run with what you've got (Morris) and hope you're successful enough with that player to make it up later on the recruiting trail.  Iowa has had a different starting RB at the start of the season for the last 4 years.  There's no consistency to build on.  In some ways, it's a testament to the recruiting abilities of Ferentz's staff, and the solid play of the O-line that the running game has been as effective as it has been over the last few years.

The biggest area that a lack of RB experience plays a part in: pass protection.  Every time a back gets the protection scheme figured out, and learns how to pick-up the blitz, he's gone.  Again, attrition either due to injury (Jewel Hampton), disciplinary reasons (Marcus Coker, Adam Robinson), or personal issues (Brandon Wegher) has created a gap in the developmental process, and makes it hard to improve year after year.

The recruiting trail is the first place to fix this.  Recruit players who understand that in order to prove their ability to impact the team they need to learn their role, prove they can be consistent, and...wait for it...WAIT.  Getting the right players with a combination of talent and work ethic isn't easy, but Ferentz has shown a bit of a knack for it.  Look at players like Chad Greenway, Micah Hyde, and Marvin McNutt.  What makes all three of these players alike?  A willingness to change positions, and the work ethic to make a position change work.  Greenway and McNutt were both recruited from the QB position in high school.  Both changed positions in college and have entered the NFL in their new position.  Hyde started the 2011 campaign as a safety, and was showing strides before his services at CB were sorely needed.

Iowa needs more players like that instead of players like A.J. Derby.  Derby had a solid high school career as a QB.  During the 2011 season, the coaching staff thought that he would be better suited for LB due to his size (he had played a bit of LB in high school as well).  Derby disagreed.  And rather than trust his coaches (the same ones that coached Greenway, McNutt, and several DBs into the NFL) he decided he knew better than they did.  So after the season he announced his intention to transfer somewhere where he could play QB.  Transfers from Iowa don't seem to fare that well after their time at Iowa (something to think about for any current players looking at potentially greener pastures).

All in all, this is fixable, and I think we'll see the benefits of some more good recruiting years this next season and after.  The problems we've seen the last couple of years started back in 2008, so the recruitment process should be balanced out...it's just a matter of the players stepping up and making their presence felt on the field.


THE FINALE:

I'll say it again: the 2012 campaign was a severe disappointment, even as a rebuilding year goes.  Ferentz will find himself on the hot-seat from fans that just a few years ago were scared he might bolt for the NFL if he doesn't improve the on-field product.  He's got the tools to do it, but like every season, it's the intangibles that will determine success.  Who will the new starting signal-caller be?  Will Weisman find success in his bruising style?  Will the D-line perform to their potential?

I make the prediction now that the 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes will be much improved over the 2012 team.  Let's see if my faith is rewarded.

Iowa 2012: What to expect - Coaching

This is going to be an interesting year for Iowa Hawkeyes football fans.  It's going to be an interesting year for the team as well.  There are lots of reasons for all the intrigue in the team this year, none more discussed/important than the coaching changes.  This is the first year in the Ferentz era that we won't see Ken O'Keefe or Norm Parker's signatures on the team as both have left (to the Dolphins, and retirement respectively).  So what will this season hold for the Hawkeyes?  What will the new offense/defense look like?

PART 1: COACHING CHANGES

I'm split on the departures by the previous coordinators.  On the one hand, the stability of the coaching staff under Ferentz has been a hallmark of his time at Iowa.  On the other hand, change was sorely needed, nowhere more evidenced than by the flat, unimaginative offenses that Iowa has fielded for the last couple of seasons.  

Offense

I'll start with the offensive side of the ball, and say that I'm actually glad that Ken O'Keefe (KOK) is no longer in Iowa City.  Early on, I was a fan of his offense, because I'm a fan of a run-first, pound the defense physically offense.  But it got bad when as a fan I could predict the next plays that Iowa was going to call in any given situation.  If I can do it from home, I know that a guy paid by an opposing team to stop the offense surely knows what's going on.  In my mind, an offense thrives when it consistently moves the ball every play/possession, and can set up the defense for a surprise every few plays.  

Under a KOK Iowa offense, you know you're going to see a lot of I-formation, and only a few 3 receiver sets (mostly under shotgun).  That's not an issue except that the only time you saw a 3 receiver set was on an obvious passing down.  So as an opposing defense, I see 3 Iowa receivers on the field, I know it's a pass coming on that play.  While the offense generally performed well rushing the ball (despite the turnover at the tailback position, Iowa has had some stellar performers over the last decade), KOK failed to use that effectively with personel/formation changes to surprise the defense into giving something up.  A change of pace for KOK was a play-action QB bootleg to the right flat, usually ending up in the hands of a fullback pulling out wide, or a tight-end coming over the middle (look back at the last few years of Iowa football if you don't believe me). 

KOK's saving grace on the team was that he was good at developing QBs.  The short list of pretty amazing QBs who played under KOK's tutelage goes like this: Brad Banks, Ricky Stanzi, and James Vandenberg (JVB).  Not necessarily household names if you're not from the state of Iowa, but Brad Banks was a runner-up for the Heisman and led Iowa to an Orange Bowl.  Stanzi is now on the roster for the Kansas City Chiefs (where there's some speculation he may see the field this year under center), led Iowa to an Orange Bowl victory, and had one of the best passer ratings in the nation his senior season.  JVB is still at Iowa, but let's not forget that he was one of the best passers in the B1G last year, and should be primed to do better (even without his favorite target from a year ago).  

With KOK departing for Miami to coach wide-outs for the Dolphins, the search was on for a new Offensive Coordinator.  Ferentz settled on Greg Davis, formerly the OC for Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns.  This is instantly an upgrade for the OC position at Iowa for several reasons.  As good as KOK was at developing QBs, Davis has a certain knack for it as well.  Do the names Colt McCoy or Vince Young ring a bell?  I'd say he's qualified to tutor a QB or two.  

Davis also won a BCS national championship with his offense in 2006, competed again in 2009, and then after a "down" year in 2010 was let go from the team.  I'm glad Mack Brown got rid of him, because this is going to be huge for Iowa.  Looking at the career of Colt McCoy, it's clear the man knows how to develop a passing game, and since Ferentz is a genius of the offensive line/rushing game this should mark the beginning of truly solid offenses coming out of Iowa.  Either that or we'll see that Ferentz was the one pulling the strings on the offense the last few years, and it's actually his fault that the offense wasn't aggressive enough in certain situations.  

Defense

On the opposite side of the ball, I've been quoted before as saying it'd be a sad day in Iowa City when Norm Parker finally decided to hang up the whistle.  I think the entire state collectively wept, and OCs around the B1G cried tears of joy.  Let's face it, when you think of Iowa football for the last decade one phrase comes to mind: bend but not break.  Iowa's defense had been a stalwart defensive unit under Parker with some of the best defenses in terms of points allowed, rushing yards allowed, and just mentally wearing down a defense.  

Like KOK, Parker didn't do anything schematically aggressive, but on defense that works well.  Parker put his players into position, coached them what the offense was going to try to do in certain situations and let them do the rest.  You didn't see a lot of frilly blitzes, or elaborate zone coverages.  What you did see more often than not was an agressive D-line that held the line of scrimmage, a 2-deep safety look, and prototypical B1G linebackers roaming through the middle of the field ready to pop any receiver, tight-end, or back that came with in range of a hit.  I liked that about Iowa's defense.  It was simple, elegant, and effective.  

We now have a new Parker (Phil Parker, no relation to Norm) as the coordinator, and he spent the last 13 years learning from one of the best defensive minds in football (at least in my opinion).  He's been quoted in the press as saying that this year's defense won't look much different than it has in years past. That's music to my ears to hear that.  While the defense has had it's problems over the last couple of years, it's not necessarily a schematic problem as much as an attrition problem.  The linebacker corps. has taken a hit due to injuries over the last couple of seasons, and this could be the best linebacker corps. since the days of Hodge and Greenway (remember those guys?).  

Parker 2.0 will bring in some new wrinkles though, and due to the youth on his D-line will probably have to be a bit more schematically creative than he might want, and will definitely be a lot more schematically creative than fans are used to seeing.  The key is to find a balance that teaches the younger players how to play the base defense that Parker 2.0 wants to install, but still make sure the defense is doing its job.  That's a balance that's going to be difficult to strike this season unless the D-line shows some growth, and aggressiveness.  

Coaching Shuffle

On top of the changes to the coordinator positions, there were several changes in position coaches as well.  Lemme rephrase that, all of the position coaches changed positions.  This kind of shuffle can be good, especially as I think Ferentz has surrounded himself with coaches that truly undertand the game of football.  Plus in many cases, the coaches merely switched sides of the ball, so their experience coaching the opposing position gives them great insights when teaching their new positions.  For example, D-line coach Reese Morgan coached Riley Reiff, Brian Bulaga, Adam Gettis, and current O-line coach Brian Ferentz who were all drafted into the NFL (among others).  So the man who is responsible for bringing along a young crop of D-linemen and making them game-ready knows extensively what it takes to make a good O-lineman.  This can only help the development of the D-line as far as technique is concerned, and should ultimately increase the effectiveness of the line.  

The biggest addition to the team, besides the two coordinators has to be the addition of more NFL quality coaching talent.  Brian Ferentz (son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, and former Hawkeye center) came to the team in the spring after coaching TEs for the New England Patriots.  I'll say that again, Brian coached TEs (READ: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) for New Englang (READ: Bill Belichick).  The elder Ferentz also coached with Belichick and anytime someone good enough for NFL coaching comes back to the collegiate ranks, it can only make a team better.  Look at Alabama and Nick Saban.  

Conclusion

All in all I'm really excited to see how the new coordinators do.  Davis will be a breath of fresh air, and I think exactly what the doctor ordered to help the anemic Iowa offense.  Look for JVB to have a great season under Davis' tutelage, and a brand new "surprise" look to the offense.  Parker 2.0 will show some struggles early on, but I look for him to figure out how to put his players in the best positions to be effective.  I'm still sad that Parker 1.0 retired, but I also know it was his time to move on.  

As for the rest of the coaching staff, I like the way things are shaking out.  There's some great talent on the coaching staff, and I think the young players will respond well and be able to learn tons of information to make themselves better.  The kicker to all of this, though is how much the players themselves want to show up and perform on a daily/weekly/season-long basis.  If they players have the will and desire to learn and perform, the coaching staff is in place to make them the best they can be.

The coaching staff will make this team rise above most analysts expectations, and I still feel justified in predicting an 8-4 season for the team.  

Football Outlook 2012 Big Ten

It's odd to think that it's been almost a year since the beginning of last year's college football season.  Last year I posted a note on Facebook with my predictions on how the Big Ten (B1G) would all shake out.  Last year was the inaugural year of a two-division format for the B1G and I predicted there would be a lot of excitement revolving around the format change.  I wasn't mistaken either.  Last season was one of the more exciting seasons in the B1G of late and I really enjoyed having two divisions duking it out for the rights to play in a B1G title game.

Just for kicks, I figured I'd start out this year by reviewing the predictions vs. realities:

Last year's predictions (From top to bottom):

Legends: 
Nebraska 9-3 (5-3) Capitol One Bowl (or BCS at-large bid)
Iowa 9-3 (5-3) Outback Bowl (or Capitol One Bowl)
Michigan 7-5 (4-4) Car-Care Bowl (or Insight Bowl)
MSU 6-6 (3-5) Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl (or Car-Care Bowl)
Northwestern 6-6 (3-5) Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl (long-shot bid)
Minnesota 5-7 (2-6)

Leaders:
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) Rose Bowl (or BCS at-large)

Penn St. 8-4 (5-3) Gator Bowl (or Outback Bowl)

OSU 7-5 (4-4) 

Illinois 6-6 (3-5) 

Indiana 5-7 (2-6) 

Purdue 4-8 (1-7) 

Clearly I thought that the Legends Division was a far stronger division, and with good reason: it was/is.  Iowa had done well in the Insight Bowl, Michigan St. had put together a good 2010 campaign, and Brady Hoke was primed to bring Michigan back into league discussions as a contender after Rich Rod nearly buried the storied program.  Reality shows this was how the season ended: 

Legends:

MSU 11-2 (7-1) Outback Bowl

Michigan 10-2 (6-2) Sugar Bowl

Nebraska 9-3 (5-3) Capitol One Bowl

Iowa 7-5 (4-4) Insight Bowl

Northwestern 6-6 (3-5) Meinike Car-Care Bowl

Minnesota 3-9 (2-6)

Leaders:

Wisconsin 11-2 (6-2) Rose Bowl

Penn St. 9-3 (6-2) Ticket City Bowl

Purdue 6-6 (4-4) Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl

OSU 6-6 (3-5) Gator Bowl

Illinois 6-6 (2-6) Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Indiana  1-11 (0-8)

Overall I don't think I did too badly with my predictions.  Most of the records were only off by a game or two, and outside of MSU winning the Legends Division I had the right rankings per league.  You can also see that the B1G did pretty well as far as getting teams into Bowls (although Illinois and Northwestern were clearly stretches as far as quality choices).  

So how will this year pan out?  Let's take a look: 

TOP OF THE PILE:

Most prognosticators in the college football world feel that Wisconsin is nearly a lock to win the Leaders division.  With Penn St. and OSU both dealing with post-season bans and sanctions and Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana rounding out the rest of the division I don't know why anyone would say that.  Read that last statement with about seven layers of sarcasm on it.  If Wisconsin doesn't make it to the B1G title game this year, the phrase "abject failure" will be the only way to describe their season.  I don't think they'll run the table on the division as I won't put anything past Urban Meyer's capabilities.  

On the other side of the league, It's probably a 3-way race for the division winner.  After last season's resurgence of the Michigan football program, they clearly have to be in the discussion.  And since we don't have any games played yet, MSU still needs to be in the discussion as well since they did win the division last year and all.  The third runner in the race is probably Nebraska, and Iowa stands an outside chance of competing in the division.  I doubt Iowa will win it, but as a fan I've got hope for the best.  

TEAM BY TEAM:

Of all the contenders for the league title, Wisconsin probably has the easiest run at it.  Not only are they only competing against 3 other teams for the division crown, but they have a very favorable schedule.  Outside of their second game against Oregon St., Wisconsin plays at home until they start league play at Nebraska.  Fortunately for Wisconsin (or unfortunately, depending on how you want to interpret it), the hardest games on the schedule appear to all be league opponents.  The game at Nebraska will be the most difficult game of the season, and if they win that one, they're in good position to run through the rest of the league.  OSU and MSU both have to come into Mad-town to win games toward the end of the season, and I'm not willing to bet against the Badgers in Camp Randall Stadium just yet (although MSU will be looking for revenge).  All in all, Wisconsin should end the season 11-1 (7-1) and represent the Leaders division in the B1G title game.  They have an opportunity to go 12-0 if they play well, and if they don't they could end up at 9-3 (5-3) which should still end up being enough to play in the title game.  

Speaking of MSU, they should be primed for another good year.  I thought last year was going to be a bumpy year for the team (and off the field it was), with a good chance they'd struggle.  They had difficult road games that I wasn't sure if they had the mettle to win.  Clearly they were a surprise to me as they ended up representing the Legends in the B1G title game.  This year proves to be another questionable year for MSU.  I'm not totally sold on all their talent yet (they did lose an amazing QB), and their schedule doesn't do them any real favors this year.  Things start off with Boise St. coming into East Lansing, and you can ask Georgia and Oregon what it's like to play Boise early in the season.  Boise St. has had an incredible program for the last few years, and have sort of become a giant killer, slaying perennial power programs (Oklahoma, Georgia, TCU), and yet they still get little respect from much of the football community.  Assuming that MSU wins that one (I'll be rooting for Boise), they'll have a good start to their season.  Their game against at OSU will be their second test as it's their B1G opener against Meyer.  In October, Iowa comes to town to start off the true test of MSU's abilities this year.  I'd like to think that Iowa will show up and compete (especially after last season's embarrassment in Iowa City), but regardless of that outcome MSU will be in trouble for the next 3 weeks.  MSU plays at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and then Nebraska comes knocking.  I can really see MSU going 2-2 during that 4 game stretch and just missing a chance to face Wisconsin for the 4th time in 2 seasons in the title game.  I realistically see MSU at 8-4 (6-2) dropping a game to Nortre Dame and Boise St. as well as Wisconsin and Michigan.  If OSU or Iowa has any kind of a season, MSU might end up as low as 6-6 (4-4) and end up as more of the middle of the pack team that I really think they still are.  

I've talked about Ohio St. quite a bit already, partially because I have no idea what they're capable of this year, and they have a chance to ruin the season for more than one B1G team.  Last year OSU did without the services of several seniors who were suspended from the team, and they lost the Sweater Vest to a scandal as well.  Luke Fickle did a great job of rallying what was left of the team, however, as a 6-6 season (normally considered a failure in Columbus) showed, there wasn't enough fight left in the remaining players.  OSU's leadership didn't think that Fickle had what it took (or he decided behind closed doors that the job wasn't for him) and went after a living legend to coach the team this year.  Urban Meyer is fresh off his 1 year retirement from coaching to lead the Buckeyes in 2012.  In his time at Florida, Meyer accumulated 2 national titles, and coached Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin (among other notable players).  Ohio St. has a virtual lock on in-state talent with regards to recruiting, and with the talent that OSU is historically capable of bringing in, Meyer should have a lovely time coaching in the B1G.  Pencil OSU into next year's B1G title game (they'll be eligible).  As for this season, I'm going to give Meyer the benefit of the doubt in his coaching abilities.  A mild non-conference slate will give OSU the confidence and time to work the wrinkles out of the system before jumping into conference play.  Nebraska and MSU will be difficult games to open up conference play with, and I think OSU will win one of the two, but probably not both.  The next major test comes when OSU travels to Madison to take on Wisconsin before facing Michigan at home.  Again, I think OSU will win one of the two, but not both.  Michigan v. OSU will be a stellar game this year, and next year the luster will be fully returned to the crowning rivalry of the B1G.  OSU should be able to go 10-2 (6-2) on the season priming them for a run at the conference crown next season, and they may have a better record that Wisconsin (depending on how games turn out) even though Wisconsin will represent the Leaders division at season's end.  

Speaking of the Michigan v. OSU game, I have to give a tip of my hat to Brady Hoke.  I praised him last year saying that he'd be able to bring some of the luster back to a storied Wolverine football program, and he didn't disappoint.  He was actually really impressive in his first season as the head man of the Blue & Maize.  He took was the tradition of Michigan football and re-injected it into a team that was "meh" at best under Rich Rod.  I felt from the beginning that Rich Rod was a bad choice to follow Lloyd Carr, and it looks like I might have been right.  I felt that RR's spread offense was going to get eaten alive by B1G defenses, and the record sort of bears that out.  The best thing to come out of RR's time in Ann Arbor is Denard Robinson (and that's not saying much).  For all the hype that analysts want to place on Robinson, he's at best another Tim Tebow.  By that I mean he's not going to play quarterback in the NFL (he threw 20TD to 15INT last year and only completed 55% of his throws), and he'd better work on his hands, or add some extra muscle throughout this year.  He's not comfortable in the pocket, and would much rather scramble (he led Michigan in rushing yards last year) for highlight reel plays (at least Tebow ran the Florida offence, Shoelace is merely a cog).   Hoke did a good job of controlling Robinson last season, and he's going to have to do the same this year or the team will be in some trouble.  For all the positives Robinson brings to the offense, it's the mistakes that can and will derail the Wolverine train.  Michigan starts the season off with last year's National Champions, the Alabama Crimson Tide coming to town.  On a normal season, that looks like a really good game on paper, this year it looks like someone is offer Michigan as a burnt offering on the altar of college football.  They might compete, but will ultimately lose the game.  Alabama's defense is too good for Robinson to compete against.  Michigan almost lost (probably should've lost) to Notre Dame last year, and I'm sure that Notre Dame won't let Michigan waltz into South Bend and walk away with a victory.  There's a good chance that Michigan starts B1G play at 2-2.  Michigan will compete well in league play, and unless some other teams really step-up they should end up winning at least 6 games on the conference slate.  All things considered, Michigan will have a decent season, and should end up at least 8-4 (6-2), could end up 10-2 (7-1), but will probably end up 9-3 (7-1).  Their lone loss in conference play should be OSU, but Iowa could pull off another surprise upset.  

Penn St. will be an interesting team to watch this year.  For starters, it's an historic season with the recent passing of legendary coach Joe Paterno.  Regardless of the Sandusky Scandal, the man was a living god of college football, and the best ambassador for Penn St. in the history of the school.  He was a class act, always had a good quip for the press, prepared his teams to win, and demanded performance.  As a coach, his record is pretty impeachable.  His passing (along with the scandal) has led to the first coaching change at Penn St. in over 40 years.  How will the team look this year?  Nobody knows.  The players that decided to stay should be playing with a chip on their shoulder to prove that they won't let the outside world determine their fate.  It'll be interesting to see if not having the opportunity to play for a B1G title, or a post-season bowl berth will have an impact on the competitive spirit of the team.  Recruiting will be difficult in the next couple of years, but there's still enough history left in College Station to bring in some good in-state talent.  Due to the fact that this is essentially a rebuilding year for the program, and that the schedule doesn't do them any favors, I expect Penn St. to basically collapse like a fragile quiche.  Virginia, Navy, and Temple aren't going to do Penn St. any favors (especially since Temple almost beat Penn St. last year) and there's a real good chance that Penn St. starts the season 1-3, or 0-4 if the team struggles at all against Ohio.  It's a good thing that Penn St. isn't allowed to go bowling this year, because I think they'd miss the mark at the end of the season.  To be bowl eligible they'd have to win 6 games, and I just don't see it happening.  Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois are all winnable games, so I can see Penn St. ending up at 5-7 (4-4) at season's end, maybe ending up as low as 4-8 (3-5).  

Nebraska's season will be an interesting one.  I think the thing this season (and the next couple) will really show is how much of a power program they are, or how much of it was a traditionally weak conference slate for most of the last century.  The Bug Eaters (as they were originally known), have played 3 of the worst FBS schools historically during conference play every year until last year.  Add to that at least 3 non-conference games against weaker opponents and you're basically bowl eligible every year.  The B1G is going to really begin to test Nebraska and its ability to compete season in and season out against some quality teams.  They've done a good job of padding their non-conference schedule and unless UCLA has performed a miracle in the off-season Nebraska should breeze through the beginning of the season at 4-0.  Then the fun part of the season starts, as Big Red starts off conference play against Wisconsin.  The advantage is that the game will be played in Lincoln, especially seeing how Wisconsin somewhat dismantled Nebraska in Madison last year.  I don't know that Nebraska will win this one either.  Wisconsin should have a good team again this year, and they look to be doing a great job of reloading talent.  Following that game is a 2-game stretch on the road at OSU and Northwestern.  OSU could prove to be a challenging game and despite the fact Nebraska won last year's game, it was at home, and OSU wasn't that good.  This year will be a different team, and with Meyer at the helm, I don't see Nebraska winning this one.  So they'll be 1-2 in B1G play when Michigan comes to town, and then Big Red travels to MSU the week after that.  The best parts of Nebraska's schedule are the beginning and the end.  After those tough games, Nebraska ends the season with games against Penn St., Minnesota, and Iowa.  Nebraska should win at least 2 out of the last 3 games (if not all 3).  The short and skinny of Nebraska's season is that they hold their destiny in their hands...if they can win, they'll be in a title game, if they lose, they might miss a bowl game.  Worst case scenario should be that Nebraska ends up 7-5 (3-5).  If they can win a couple more games than that they've got themselves in the discussion of Legends division champs and can punch their ticket to Indianapolis.  

I don't really want to discuss the next team, but they are part of the league, so I'll do my due diligence.  Purdue is the one team in the Leaders division that has a chance to steal the division title from Wisconsin.  I don't think that will happen, but if Purdue wants to play in Indianapolis, this is the season to strike.  OSU and Penn St. can't end up in the B1G title game, and Purdue put together a competitive season last year so if they can improve (and Wisconsin stumbles) they have a shot at it.  The game against Notre Dame will be the early season test, and will help determine whether Purdue even wants to make a run at the B1G title or not.  Assuming they win, their most difficult game could end up being their trip to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes.  Don't get me wrong, Wisconsin and Michigan will be difficult games, but they're home games.  And after back-to-back difficult home game, travelling to the Horseshoe will not be an easy task.  If Purdue plays well, they can end up with a 9-3 (5-3) season.  If that happens they will be in title discussions at season's end.  Especially if they show up and play well against Wisconsin.  All things considered, I see the Boilermakers ending up closer to 7-5 (4-4) and doing well in a bowl game.  

Travelling to the Chicago-land area, Northwestern will be another interesting team to watch.  Year in and year out I look at Northwestern and see them as a "bubble" team in the B1G.  They're a middle of the pack team most years, but they have the occasional flash of brilliance that makes me think they're just on the cusp of something great.  Last year might have been their chance for greatness though.  Much like last season, when I look at their non-conference schedule I can't help but think that they're trying to force the guys to step up and prepare for the B1G slate.  Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Boston College are all games that are winnable (but they're also losable).  Pencil them in at 3-1 going into conference play, and buckle your seatbelts for the rest of the season.  Until Nebraska comes to town, the schedule is pretty basic, but that Nebraska game signals the start of "do-or-die" football for Northwestern.  Home against Nebraska and Iowa (who finally beat them last year in Iowa City), and then on the road at Michigan and MSU.  I think the best Northwestern will pull off during this stretch is 1-3 and depending on the severity of the loss to MSU will determine whether the team shows up for Illinois.  I've got Northwestern ridding near the middle again, ending up 7-5 (4-4).  They'll end up in a bowl game, but will miss out on Indy again this year.  

Unlike Northwestern, Illinois probably won't go bowling again this year.  They limped into the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl last year at 6-6, to fight against a 6-7 UCLA team.  And limped into the game they did.  After starting off with a 6-0 start, they lost the remaining 6 games of the regular season.  Even their win over UCLA wasn't all that impressive of a win.  That said, they should start off their season 4-0 in non-conference play, and depending on the state of the Penn St. program, they might start off 5-0.  Then the face Wisconsin in Madison starting off the end of Illinois' season.  After that they travel to the Big House to face Michigan and 2 games later they'll be in Columbus facing the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.  It's going to be a rough B1G season for Illinois with a schedule like that.  I've got Illinois going 6-6 (2-6) again, and limping into another bowl game this season.  If the B1G ends up being strong this year, that might fall even further.  

Speaking of a strong B1G, Minnesota will be a team to watch this year.  They had a rough season, but managed to improve over the course of the year.  I can't give them a pass on their easy non-conference schedule, but they should compete.  The B1G slate will be difficult again, and I really don't know that the Gophers are quite ready to compete yet.  They were surprising in the game against Iowa last year, but Minnesota didn't have anything to lose, and it was a rivalry they'd been on the short end of for quite a few years running.  To add insult to injury, several of those years were years when Iowa's team really didn't show up and compete, and Minnesota still lost those games.  I think that if Minnesota has improved over last year they'll end up at least 4-8 (2-6).  With a profound improvement and some luck in the non-conference slate and they could end up 6-6 (2-6), but I just don't have that much faith in them.  

And speaking of teams that I don't have much faith in...I don't have any faith in Indiana this year.  Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 5 games throughout the season.  What reward did I get for my belief that a B1G team couldn't lose to Ball St.?  A 1 win season, that's what.  I really can't get my hopes up too much that they'll get through the non-conference schedule with more than 1 win, let alone the rest of the league schedule.  Since this appears to be a complete failure of a team, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they'll be surprising in the opposite direction (but not by much).  I think Indiana will end up 3-9 (1-7).  I have no idea which team in the league they'll beat, but God help that team, because the analysts will eat that team alive.  

Having gotten through the rest of the B1G, it's finally time to discuss Iowa.  Just like every season, I have high expectations for my team of choice.  Last year I conceded that Iowa was built to be a 7-5 team just about every season, and last year was the second year in a row Iowa had accomplished that.  Sadly, knowing that the team is built to get that record every year, means that when it happens, I view it as a disappointment.  I was recently reminded of some of the teams that played in the mid 2000's and I remember watching those players play with chips on their shoulders and playing quality hard-nosed football.  Some of the players in recent years haven't played up to their potential, and it's hurt the team overall.  I'd like to see some of that change this year with the coaching shuffles.  For the first time in the Kirk Ferentz era, the offense will be run by someone other than Ken O'Keefe, and while the defense will be a Parker defense, it won't be Norm's defense.  I'm excited though, because Phil Parker (no relation) will maintain most of Iowa's base defense, but throw some new wrinkles in to hopefully improve Iowa's chances against new-wave offenses.  On the offensive side of the ball, Greg Davis comes to Iowa from Texas, and I think that the injection of new ideas comes at a great time for the program.  I think Davis will improve the passing game, and if Ferentz keeps the running game in more or less the same format he's had it for the last few years, the offense will hum.  Many fans are down on this year's team, but I'm going to predict a decent season.  There are questions surrounding the team, but I think there's some great up-shot potential on this young team, and the league better look out in years to come, because this young talent will continue to develop.  At worst I've got Iowa going 7-5 (4-4) and that's assuming losses to MSU, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska.  The other loss I'm counting is ISU.  That's the bad news about the season.  Iowa stands a chance to fight for the Legends division crown, and hold the keys to that in their hands by being competitive.  I feel that Iowa has the talent to compete with and probably beat ISU and Northwestern putting them at 9-3 (5-3).  I'd like to think that Iowa can beat Michigan again, and at least compete with MSU and Nebraska this year running the table for a 12-0 season.  That's not going to happen this year, but I'm confident in putting the final prediction at 8-4 (5-3) with the potential for some pleasant surprises.  I'll go into more detail about how I see Iowa's season going in the next update. 

HOW I SEE THE CONFERENCE:

This year has the makings of being a great season in the B1G.  Traditional powers will continue to rise from the ashes of the last few years, and the rest of the league will do what they can to prevent that from happening.  After last year's haul of 10 teams competing in bowl games, I think this year will yield closer to 7 teams in bowl games.  Year 2 of the divisional layout will increase excitement for the league, and there will be some good contenders for the Rose Bowl.  If a team can manage to put it all together (Wisconsin or Michigan more than likely) there might be an outside chance of a B1G making waves with regards to a trip to the BCS National Championship Game.  We'll just have to wait to see what happens, but this football fan is excited for next Saturday.  So to end things I'll leave you with the final predictions. 

FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Top to Bottom:

Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) Rose Bowl (or BCS Title shot)

Michigan 9-3 (7-1) BCS at-large

Ohio St. 10-2 (6-2) Not bowl eligible (NCAA sanctions)

MSU 8-4 (6-2) Capitol One Bowl

Iowa 8-4 (5-3) Outback Bowl

Purdue 7-5 (4-4) Gator Bowl

Northwestern 7-5 (4-4) Insight Bowl

Penn St. 5-7 (4-4) Not Bowl eligible (NCAA sanctions)
Nebraska 7-5 (3-5) Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Illinois 6-6 (2-6) TicketCity Bowl

Minnesota 4-8 (2-6)

Indiana 3-9 (1-7)

By Division:

Legends

Michigan 9-3 (7-1)

MSU 8-4 (6-2)

Iowa 8-4 (5-3)

Nebraska 7-5 (3-5)

Northwestern 7-5 (4-4)

Minnesota 4-8 (2-6)

Leaders 

Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)

Ohio St. 10-2 (6-2)

Purdue 7-5 (4-4)

Penn St. 5-7 (4-4)

Illinois 6-6 (2-6)

Indiana 3-9 (1-7)