It's odd to think that it's been almost a year since the beginning of last year's college football season. Last year I posted a note on Facebook with my predictions on how the Big Ten (B1G) would all shake out. Last year was the inaugural year of a two-division format for the B1G and I predicted there would be a lot of excitement revolving around the format change. I wasn't mistaken either. Last season was one of the more exciting seasons in the B1G of late and I really enjoyed having two divisions duking it out for the rights to play in a B1G title game.
Just for kicks, I figured I'd start out this year by reviewing the predictions vs. realities:
Last year's predictions (From top to bottom):
Legends:
Nebraska 9-3 (5-3) Capitol One Bowl (or BCS at-large bid)
Iowa 9-3 (5-3) Outback Bowl (or Capitol One Bowl)
Michigan 7-5 (4-4) Car-Care Bowl (or Insight Bowl)
MSU 6-6 (3-5) Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl (or Car-Care Bowl)
Northwestern 6-6 (3-5) Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl (long-shot bid)
Minnesota 5-7 (2-6)
Leaders:
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) Rose Bowl (or BCS at-large)
Penn St. 8-4 (5-3) Gator Bowl (or Outback Bowl)
OSU 7-5 (4-4)
Illinois 6-6 (3-5)
Indiana 5-7 (2-6)
Purdue 4-8 (1-7)
Clearly I thought that the Legends Division was a far stronger division, and with good reason: it was/is. Iowa had done well in the Insight Bowl, Michigan St. had put together a good 2010 campaign, and Brady Hoke was primed to bring Michigan back into league discussions as a contender after Rich Rod nearly buried the storied program. Reality shows this was how the season ended:
Legends:
MSU 11-2 (7-1) Outback Bowl
Michigan 10-2 (6-2) Sugar Bowl
Nebraska 9-3 (5-3) Capitol One Bowl
Iowa 7-5 (4-4) Insight Bowl
Northwestern 6-6 (3-5) Meinike Car-Care Bowl
Minnesota 3-9 (2-6)
Leaders:
Wisconsin 11-2 (6-2) Rose Bowl
Penn St. 9-3 (6-2) Ticket City Bowl
Purdue 6-6 (4-4) Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl
OSU 6-6 (3-5) Gator Bowl
Illinois 6-6 (2-6) Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Indiana 1-11 (0-8)
Overall I don't think I did too badly with my predictions. Most of the records were only off by a game or two, and outside of MSU winning the Legends Division I had the right rankings per league. You can also see that the B1G did pretty well as far as getting teams into Bowls (although Illinois and Northwestern were clearly stretches as far as quality choices).
So how will this year pan out? Let's take a look:
TOP OF THE PILE:
Most prognosticators in the college football world feel that Wisconsin is nearly a lock to win the Leaders division. With Penn St. and OSU both dealing with post-season bans and sanctions and Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana rounding out the rest of the division I don't know why anyone would say that. Read that last statement with about seven layers of sarcasm on it. If Wisconsin doesn't make it to the B1G title game this year, the phrase "abject failure" will be the only way to describe their season. I don't think they'll run the table on the division as I won't put anything past Urban Meyer's capabilities.
On the other side of the league, It's probably a 3-way race for the division winner. After last season's resurgence of the Michigan football program, they clearly have to be in the discussion. And since we don't have any games played yet, MSU still needs to be in the discussion as well since they did win the division last year and all. The third runner in the race is probably Nebraska, and Iowa stands an outside chance of competing in the division. I doubt Iowa will win it, but as a fan I've got hope for the best.
TEAM BY TEAM:
Of all the contenders for the league title, Wisconsin probably has the easiest run at it. Not only are they only competing against 3 other teams for the division crown, but they have a very favorable schedule. Outside of their second game against Oregon St., Wisconsin plays at home until they start league play at Nebraska. Fortunately for Wisconsin (or unfortunately, depending on how you want to interpret it), the hardest games on the schedule appear to all be league opponents. The game at Nebraska will be the most difficult game of the season, and if they win that one, they're in good position to run through the rest of the league. OSU and MSU both have to come into Mad-town to win games toward the end of the season, and I'm not willing to bet against the Badgers in Camp Randall Stadium just yet (although MSU will be looking for revenge). All in all, Wisconsin should end the season 11-1 (7-1) and represent the Leaders division in the B1G title game. They have an opportunity to go 12-0 if they play well, and if they don't they could end up at 9-3 (5-3) which should still end up being enough to play in the title game.
Speaking of MSU, they should be primed for another good year. I thought last year was going to be a bumpy year for the team (and off the field it was), with a good chance they'd struggle. They had difficult road games that I wasn't sure if they had the mettle to win. Clearly they were a surprise to me as they ended up representing the Legends in the B1G title game. This year proves to be another questionable year for MSU. I'm not totally sold on all their talent yet (they did lose an amazing QB), and their schedule doesn't do them any real favors this year. Things start off with Boise St. coming into East Lansing, and you can ask Georgia and Oregon what it's like to play Boise early in the season. Boise St. has had an incredible program for the last few years, and have sort of become a giant killer, slaying perennial power programs (Oklahoma, Georgia, TCU), and yet they still get little respect from much of the football community. Assuming that MSU wins that one (I'll be rooting for Boise), they'll have a good start to their season. Their game against at OSU will be their second test as it's their B1G opener against Meyer. In October, Iowa comes to town to start off the true test of MSU's abilities this year. I'd like to think that Iowa will show up and compete (especially after last season's embarrassment in Iowa City), but regardless of that outcome MSU will be in trouble for the next 3 weeks. MSU plays at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and then Nebraska comes knocking. I can really see MSU going 2-2 during that 4 game stretch and just missing a chance to face Wisconsin for the 4th time in 2 seasons in the title game. I realistically see MSU at 8-4 (6-2) dropping a game to Nortre Dame and Boise St. as well as Wisconsin and Michigan. If OSU or Iowa has any kind of a season, MSU might end up as low as 6-6 (4-4) and end up as more of the middle of the pack team that I really think they still are.
I've talked about Ohio St. quite a bit already, partially because I have no idea what they're capable of this year, and they have a chance to ruin the season for more than one B1G team. Last year OSU did without the services of several seniors who were suspended from the team, and they lost the Sweater Vest to a scandal as well. Luke Fickle did a great job of rallying what was left of the team, however, as a 6-6 season (normally considered a failure in Columbus) showed, there wasn't enough fight left in the remaining players. OSU's leadership didn't think that Fickle had what it took (or he decided behind closed doors that the job wasn't for him) and went after a living legend to coach the team this year. Urban Meyer is fresh off his 1 year retirement from coaching to lead the Buckeyes in 2012. In his time at Florida, Meyer accumulated 2 national titles, and coached Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin (among other notable players). Ohio St. has a virtual lock on in-state talent with regards to recruiting, and with the talent that OSU is historically capable of bringing in, Meyer should have a lovely time coaching in the B1G. Pencil OSU into next year's B1G title game (they'll be eligible). As for this season, I'm going to give Meyer the benefit of the doubt in his coaching abilities. A mild non-conference slate will give OSU the confidence and time to work the wrinkles out of the system before jumping into conference play. Nebraska and MSU will be difficult games to open up conference play with, and I think OSU will win one of the two, but probably not both. The next major test comes when OSU travels to Madison to take on Wisconsin before facing Michigan at home. Again, I think OSU will win one of the two, but not both. Michigan v. OSU will be a stellar game this year, and next year the luster will be fully returned to the crowning rivalry of the B1G. OSU should be able to go 10-2 (6-2) on the season priming them for a run at the conference crown next season, and they may have a better record that Wisconsin (depending on how games turn out) even though Wisconsin will represent the Leaders division at season's end.
Speaking of the Michigan v. OSU game, I have to give a tip of my hat to Brady Hoke. I praised him last year saying that he'd be able to bring some of the luster back to a storied Wolverine football program, and he didn't disappoint. He was actually really impressive in his first season as the head man of the Blue & Maize. He took was the tradition of Michigan football and re-injected it into a team that was "meh" at best under Rich Rod. I felt from the beginning that Rich Rod was a bad choice to follow Lloyd Carr, and it looks like I might have been right. I felt that RR's spread offense was going to get eaten alive by B1G defenses, and the record sort of bears that out. The best thing to come out of RR's time in Ann Arbor is Denard Robinson (and that's not saying much). For all the hype that analysts want to place on Robinson, he's at best another Tim Tebow. By that I mean he's not going to play quarterback in the NFL (he threw 20TD to 15INT last year and only completed 55% of his throws), and he'd better work on his hands, or add some extra muscle throughout this year. He's not comfortable in the pocket, and would much rather scramble (he led Michigan in rushing yards last year) for highlight reel plays (at least Tebow ran the Florida offence, Shoelace is merely a cog). Hoke did a good job of controlling Robinson last season, and he's going to have to do the same this year or the team will be in some trouble. For all the positives Robinson brings to the offense, it's the mistakes that can and will derail the Wolverine train. Michigan starts the season off with last year's National Champions, the Alabama Crimson Tide coming to town. On a normal season, that looks like a really good game on paper, this year it looks like someone is offer Michigan as a burnt offering on the altar of college football. They might compete, but will ultimately lose the game. Alabama's defense is too good for Robinson to compete against. Michigan almost lost (probably should've lost) to Notre Dame last year, and I'm sure that Notre Dame won't let Michigan waltz into South Bend and walk away with a victory. There's a good chance that Michigan starts B1G play at 2-2. Michigan will compete well in league play, and unless some other teams really step-up they should end up winning at least 6 games on the conference slate. All things considered, Michigan will have a decent season, and should end up at least 8-4 (6-2), could end up 10-2 (7-1), but will probably end up 9-3 (7-1). Their lone loss in conference play should be OSU, but Iowa could pull off another surprise upset.
Penn St. will be an interesting team to watch this year. For starters, it's an historic season with the recent passing of legendary coach Joe Paterno. Regardless of the Sandusky Scandal, the man was a living god of college football, and the best ambassador for Penn St. in the history of the school. He was a class act, always had a good quip for the press, prepared his teams to win, and demanded performance. As a coach, his record is pretty impeachable. His passing (along with the scandal) has led to the first coaching change at Penn St. in over 40 years. How will the team look this year? Nobody knows. The players that decided to stay should be playing with a chip on their shoulder to prove that they won't let the outside world determine their fate. It'll be interesting to see if not having the opportunity to play for a B1G title, or a post-season bowl berth will have an impact on the competitive spirit of the team. Recruiting will be difficult in the next couple of years, but there's still enough history left in College Station to bring in some good in-state talent. Due to the fact that this is essentially a rebuilding year for the program, and that the schedule doesn't do them any favors, I expect Penn St. to basically collapse like a fragile quiche. Virginia, Navy, and Temple aren't going to do Penn St. any favors (especially since Temple almost beat Penn St. last year) and there's a real good chance that Penn St. starts the season 1-3, or 0-4 if the team struggles at all against Ohio. It's a good thing that Penn St. isn't allowed to go bowling this year, because I think they'd miss the mark at the end of the season. To be bowl eligible they'd have to win 6 games, and I just don't see it happening. Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois are all winnable games, so I can see Penn St. ending up at 5-7 (4-4) at season's end, maybe ending up as low as 4-8 (3-5).
Nebraska's season will be an interesting one. I think the thing this season (and the next couple) will really show is how much of a power program they are, or how much of it was a traditionally weak conference slate for most of the last century. The Bug Eaters (as they were originally known), have played 3 of the worst FBS schools historically during conference play every year until last year. Add to that at least 3 non-conference games against weaker opponents and you're basically bowl eligible every year. The B1G is going to really begin to test Nebraska and its ability to compete season in and season out against some quality teams. They've done a good job of padding their non-conference schedule and unless UCLA has performed a miracle in the off-season Nebraska should breeze through the beginning of the season at 4-0. Then the fun part of the season starts, as Big Red starts off conference play against Wisconsin. The advantage is that the game will be played in Lincoln, especially seeing how Wisconsin somewhat dismantled Nebraska in Madison last year. I don't know that Nebraska will win this one either. Wisconsin should have a good team again this year, and they look to be doing a great job of reloading talent. Following that game is a 2-game stretch on the road at OSU and Northwestern. OSU could prove to be a challenging game and despite the fact Nebraska won last year's game, it was at home, and OSU wasn't that good. This year will be a different team, and with Meyer at the helm, I don't see Nebraska winning this one. So they'll be 1-2 in B1G play when Michigan comes to town, and then Big Red travels to MSU the week after that. The best parts of Nebraska's schedule are the beginning and the end. After those tough games, Nebraska ends the season with games against Penn St., Minnesota, and Iowa. Nebraska should win at least 2 out of the last 3 games (if not all 3). The short and skinny of Nebraska's season is that they hold their destiny in their hands...if they can win, they'll be in a title game, if they lose, they might miss a bowl game. Worst case scenario should be that Nebraska ends up 7-5 (3-5). If they can win a couple more games than that they've got themselves in the discussion of Legends division champs and can punch their ticket to Indianapolis.
I don't really want to discuss the next team, but they are part of the league, so I'll do my due diligence. Purdue is the one team in the Leaders division that has a chance to steal the division title from Wisconsin. I don't think that will happen, but if Purdue wants to play in Indianapolis, this is the season to strike. OSU and Penn St. can't end up in the B1G title game, and Purdue put together a competitive season last year so if they can improve (and Wisconsin stumbles) they have a shot at it. The game against Notre Dame will be the early season test, and will help determine whether Purdue even wants to make a run at the B1G title or not. Assuming they win, their most difficult game could end up being their trip to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. Don't get me wrong, Wisconsin and Michigan will be difficult games, but they're home games. And after back-to-back difficult home game, travelling to the Horseshoe will not be an easy task. If Purdue plays well, they can end up with a 9-3 (5-3) season. If that happens they will be in title discussions at season's end. Especially if they show up and play well against Wisconsin. All things considered, I see the Boilermakers ending up closer to 7-5 (4-4) and doing well in a bowl game.
Travelling to the Chicago-land area, Northwestern will be another interesting team to watch. Year in and year out I look at Northwestern and see them as a "bubble" team in the B1G. They're a middle of the pack team most years, but they have the occasional flash of brilliance that makes me think they're just on the cusp of something great. Last year might have been their chance for greatness though. Much like last season, when I look at their non-conference schedule I can't help but think that they're trying to force the guys to step up and prepare for the B1G slate. Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Boston College are all games that are winnable (but they're also losable). Pencil them in at 3-1 going into conference play, and buckle your seatbelts for the rest of the season. Until Nebraska comes to town, the schedule is pretty basic, but that Nebraska game signals the start of "do-or-die" football for Northwestern. Home against Nebraska and Iowa (who finally beat them last year in Iowa City), and then on the road at Michigan and MSU. I think the best Northwestern will pull off during this stretch is 1-3 and depending on the severity of the loss to MSU will determine whether the team shows up for Illinois. I've got Northwestern ridding near the middle again, ending up 7-5 (4-4). They'll end up in a bowl game, but will miss out on Indy again this year.
Unlike Northwestern, Illinois probably won't go bowling again this year. They limped into the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl last year at 6-6, to fight against a 6-7 UCLA team. And limped into the game they did. After starting off with a 6-0 start, they lost the remaining 6 games of the regular season. Even their win over UCLA wasn't all that impressive of a win. That said, they should start off their season 4-0 in non-conference play, and depending on the state of the Penn St. program, they might start off 5-0. Then the face Wisconsin in Madison starting off the end of Illinois' season. After that they travel to the Big House to face Michigan and 2 games later they'll be in Columbus facing the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe. It's going to be a rough B1G season for Illinois with a schedule like that. I've got Illinois going 6-6 (2-6) again, and limping into another bowl game this season. If the B1G ends up being strong this year, that might fall even further.
Speaking of a strong B1G, Minnesota will be a team to watch this year. They had a rough season, but managed to improve over the course of the year. I can't give them a pass on their easy non-conference schedule, but they should compete. The B1G slate will be difficult again, and I really don't know that the Gophers are quite ready to compete yet. They were surprising in the game against Iowa last year, but Minnesota didn't have anything to lose, and it was a rivalry they'd been on the short end of for quite a few years running. To add insult to injury, several of those years were years when Iowa's team really didn't show up and compete, and Minnesota still lost those games. I think that if Minnesota has improved over last year they'll end up at least 4-8 (2-6). With a profound improvement and some luck in the non-conference slate and they could end up 6-6 (2-6), but I just don't have that much faith in them.
And speaking of teams that I don't have much faith in...I don't have any faith in Indiana this year. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 5 games throughout the season. What reward did I get for my belief that a B1G team couldn't lose to Ball St.? A 1 win season, that's what. I really can't get my hopes up too much that they'll get through the non-conference schedule with more than 1 win, let alone the rest of the league schedule. Since this appears to be a complete failure of a team, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they'll be surprising in the opposite direction (but not by much). I think Indiana will end up 3-9 (1-7). I have no idea which team in the league they'll beat, but God help that team, because the analysts will eat that team alive.
Having gotten through the rest of the B1G, it's finally time to discuss Iowa. Just like every season, I have high expectations for my team of choice. Last year I conceded that Iowa was built to be a 7-5 team just about every season, and last year was the second year in a row Iowa had accomplished that. Sadly, knowing that the team is built to get that record every year, means that when it happens, I view it as a disappointment. I was recently reminded of some of the teams that played in the mid 2000's and I remember watching those players play with chips on their shoulders and playing quality hard-nosed football. Some of the players in recent years haven't played up to their potential, and it's hurt the team overall. I'd like to see some of that change this year with the coaching shuffles. For the first time in the Kirk Ferentz era, the offense will be run by someone other than Ken O'Keefe, and while the defense will be a Parker defense, it won't be Norm's defense. I'm excited though, because Phil Parker (no relation) will maintain most of Iowa's base defense, but throw some new wrinkles in to hopefully improve Iowa's chances against new-wave offenses. On the offensive side of the ball, Greg Davis comes to Iowa from Texas, and I think that the injection of new ideas comes at a great time for the program. I think Davis will improve the passing game, and if Ferentz keeps the running game in more or less the same format he's had it for the last few years, the offense will hum. Many fans are down on this year's team, but I'm going to predict a decent season. There are questions surrounding the team, but I think there's some great up-shot potential on this young team, and the league better look out in years to come, because this young talent will continue to develop. At worst I've got Iowa going 7-5 (4-4) and that's assuming losses to MSU, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska. The other loss I'm counting is ISU. That's the bad news about the season. Iowa stands a chance to fight for the Legends division crown, and hold the keys to that in their hands by being competitive. I feel that Iowa has the talent to compete with and probably beat ISU and Northwestern putting them at 9-3 (5-3). I'd like to think that Iowa can beat Michigan again, and at least compete with MSU and Nebraska this year running the table for a 12-0 season. That's not going to happen this year, but I'm confident in putting the final prediction at 8-4 (5-3) with the potential for some pleasant surprises. I'll go into more detail about how I see Iowa's season going in the next update.
HOW I SEE THE CONFERENCE:
This year has the makings of being a great season in the B1G. Traditional powers will continue to rise from the ashes of the last few years, and the rest of the league will do what they can to prevent that from happening. After last year's haul of 10 teams competing in bowl games, I think this year will yield closer to 7 teams in bowl games. Year 2 of the divisional layout will increase excitement for the league, and there will be some good contenders for the Rose Bowl. If a team can manage to put it all together (Wisconsin or Michigan more than likely) there might be an outside chance of a B1G making waves with regards to a trip to the BCS National Championship Game. We'll just have to wait to see what happens, but this football fan is excited for next Saturday. So to end things I'll leave you with the final predictions.
FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Top to Bottom:
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) Rose Bowl (or BCS Title shot)
Michigan 9-3 (7-1) BCS at-large
Ohio St. 10-2 (6-2) Not bowl eligible (NCAA sanctions)
MSU 8-4 (6-2) Capitol One Bowl
Iowa 8-4 (5-3) Outback Bowl
Purdue 7-5 (4-4) Gator Bowl
Northwestern 7-5 (4-4) Insight Bowl
Penn St. 5-7 (4-4) Not Bowl eligible (NCAA sanctions)Nebraska 7-5 (3-5) Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Illinois 6-6 (2-6) TicketCity Bowl
Minnesota 4-8 (2-6)
Indiana 3-9 (1-7)
By Division:
Legends
Michigan 9-3 (7-1)
MSU 8-4 (6-2)
Iowa 8-4 (5-3)
Nebraska 7-5 (3-5)
Northwestern 7-5 (4-4)
Minnesota 4-8 (2-6)
Leaders
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Ohio St. 10-2 (6-2)
Purdue 7-5 (4-4)
Penn St. 5-7 (4-4)
Illinois 6-6 (2-6)
Indiana 3-9 (1-7)
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