It's done. It's over. And if you're a Hawk fan like me, there's a sigh of relief accompanying that thought. We all knew it was going to be an uphill battle, tough sledding, a struggle, etc. etc. etc. I'll admit, I was disappointed at the 4-8 finish the team posted. This post is going to be a look back at some things that happened over the season, my thoughts on them, and a brief look ahead at next year. I'll be using some time this off-season to look more in-depth at what I feel for the team next year.
THE SEASON ON THE WHOLE:
Clearly 2012 was a rebuilding year for the Iowa Hawkeyes. I didn't have any grand delusions of competing for a national title. I had some blind fan hope that it might happen, but I realistically pegged the team as being a 7-5 team. I had a hope that the team would surprise some of the prognosticators who were predicting a Mayan Apocalypse of a team, and do what most Ferentz teams do: just enough to become bowl eligible. I had the team at 7-5 including losses to ISU, MSU, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska.
I figured that the D-line would come together and play aggressively knowing they had one of the better secondaries and linebacking corps backing them up. I thought that James Vandenberg (JVB) would be primed to follow-up the success he had in 2011. I was even excited about the coaching changes as I thought they were good changes to make. And as I said before the season started, anytime a program can bring NFL quality coaching talent to the collegiate level, it can only mean good things.
What ended up happening was a dreadful 4-8 season, which nearly started out with a loss against NIU. It did have an unbearable loss to ISU, a hearty win over Minnesota, and worrisome losses to Indiana, Purdue, and surprising showing (albeit a loss) against Nebraska. The best story on the offense was not JVB hitting TE's or WR's for touchdowns (he threw 7 all season), but a walk-on FB who became an instant hero. Sadly, Weisman's contributions were not super-human enough to really change the offense which ranked near the bottom in pretty much every statistical category.
Defensively, the team didn't fare much better. The secondary was solid, but not flashy through much of the season. The linebackers were competent, and effective, but should not have been asked to carry as much of the weight as they were. The D-line fared well at times, and showed it's youth more often than not. Inconsistency was the main story for the defense all season. Actually, hot & cold may be a better way to describe them. Even during the same game the defense could look unstoppable one drive, and look like Swiss cheese the next. Repetition on the practice field can and will do wonders for this unit next season.
FEEL GOOD STORY OF THE YEAR:
I can tell this whole story in 2 words: Mark Weisman. Weisman started off the season as the backup FB behind Brad Rogers. Not only was he the backup, he was a walk-on to boot. None of that mattered to the Air Force transfer. All he did was do what he does best: tote the rock...HARD.
Iowa fans are familiar with the seemingly supernatural phenomenon that strikes the members of Iowa's offensive backfield known as Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God (AIRBHG for short). The truncated version of this story is that since 2008, no Iowa starting running back has graduated from the program, and very few have made it a whole season listed as the starter. Whether off-the-field issues, injuries, or poor performance on-the-field, the Iowa backfield has struggled at times under Ferentz. Which is odd considering his run-first offensive attitude, and penchant for building great offensive lines out of great offensive linemen.
In the case of Weisman, he was the beneficiary and victim of AIRBHG. He benefited when Canzeri tore his ACL last spring, when Coker left the program last year, Garmon was arrested before arriving on campus for drug possession, and finally when Bullock went down hurt in the game vs. UNI. At one point in that game he had 3 carries for 3 TDs as the starting FB. Once Bullock was injured, the RB duties went to Weisman and he rumbled over the UNI defense to the tune of 113 yards on 24 attempts. His bruising style of running, punishing anyone in the secondary that dared try to stop him, won him the adoration of Hawkeye Nation that day.
Weisman was solid for the next few games. His performance in the Minnesota game helped bring Floyd back to Iowa City for the first time in a few seasons. He gave the offense something it was lacking: an identity. JVB had only thrown 1 TD on the season going into that game, and was struggling in Davis' new system. Weisman was the focal point of the offense for his brief stint as starter. So much so, that he was promised a scholarship for next year. Then AIRBHG reared its ugly head again and caused Weisman to suffer a tweaked ankle in a gritty victory over MSU. His season was pretty much done after that.
Next year, look for Weisman to explode out of the backfield and give the Iowa offense something it can build from as the year progresses. We'll hear more "Weisman for Heisman" chants from the Iowa faithful, and while I think Weisman will be good, he won't be quite that good.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE SEASON:
This one has been even more well documented than Wiesman's ascent on the team, but after throwing 25 TDs his junior year, everyone who knew anything about Iowa football expected James Vandenberg to have a fair amount of success in 2012. With Davis coming to town after coaching Colt McCoy I thought it seemed like a great fit for JVB. Davis is known for putting his QBs in the shotgun, which is where JVB has always seemed the most comfortable.
Needless to say, JVB's 7 TD passes was well short of his 2011 output, and he seemed to struggle with reads. He didn't see open receivers for big plays, he misfired on several throws, and just seemed overwhelmed in the pocket. To his credit, he didn't let the public get to him much. He fought the whole season even though the media, and the fans were scrutinizing his every move. One thing was made clear last season: JVB is no Ricky Stanzi.
A second thing was made clear as well. We have no idea who the starting QB will be next season. Rudock was listed as the #2 all season, yet he never took a snap. Even when the game was out of reach (PSU, Mich, etc.) JVB stayed in. The prevailing theory is that Rudock is not the heir apparent, and since the other QBs on roster were redshirting, that means that Ferentz didn't want to burn their redshirts pressing them into action in garbage time. I'll take a more in-depth view of the QB situation in a future update.
EFFECTS OF COACHES:
2012 was the first season under Ferentz that the OC was not named O'Keefe and the the DC was not named Norm. There were also additions of Lamar Woods, and Brian Ferentz (who had coached the Patriots TE's in the NFL the year before). As mentioned before, I thought that Davis would be a great fit at the OC position, and I was excited to see Parker (not Norm), get the DC position.
Parker 2.0 didn't do a terrible job of coaching in 2012. Granted the defense was not up to its normal par, but it seemed to show up better than the offense did. I'm going to give him a first-year pass for the performance of the defense. Now that he's had a year to evaluate what works and what doesn't in certain situations he can better place his players for success. The secondary did well under him, and the linebackers proved to be more than capable in his schemes. There was far more base defense than I was anticipating going into the season, and I expect that to continue in 2013 as well. Parker is taking the time necessary to ensure that his players know their roles in the defense and letting the backups grow into starting roles. With some additional talent recruited in, he should have a solid unit in 2013. At the very least, the D-line should improve and be a focal point for Parker in the off-season.
The offense...where to start? The offense itself was almost as big a disappointment as a unit as JVB was as a QB. Were it not for Weisman, and some pretty impressive O-line play, I think I might have thought far differently about the offense last year. Davis had all the tools necessary to be successful as the OC at Iowa given his proclivities when he was at Texas. He had solid TEs, a returning QB with some big-game experience, a solid O-line, and seemingly capable receivers. What the season ended with was under-utilized TEs, a QB who struggled to understand the new passing game, and an O-line that did everything it could to provide the offense with time and protection and dropped balls from the receivers.
Last season was a chance to see if the offensive woes of the past were a by-product of the KOK era, or if it was Ferentz all along. For most people, the proof is in the pudding: Ferentz and his ultra-conservative style of coaching were the culprits of the offensive woes. I'm more prone to giving the benefit of the doubt to Ferentz, because I think he's probably one of the best coaches Iowa has seen in football. That said, if Davis doesn't go all-out with the offense next year, I'll know Ferentz is holding the keys and not to expect much offensive creativity as long as he's the head-man at Iowa.
Looking at the head-man with a bit more scrutiny, I have to say either Ferentz is losing his edge, or he's the most diabolical head-coach in the game when it comes to long-term planning. This season had several head-scratching calls from the coach including not benching JVB when the game was already lost, odd choices in short-yardage situations (even for Ferentz), and interesting moves with his assistant coaches. Next year should answer that question. If the team falters again, he's losing his edge. If the team shows signs of success he's a long-term planning genius.
THE PLAYERS' CONTRIBUTIONS:
As much as college football has become a discussion of X's and O's, coaches, styles, and dynasties it's important to remember that the players are college students. Most of them are under the legal drinking age, and many are away from home and parental supervision for the first time. This new found freedom can be overwhelming for someone of that age (I've seen it happen at smaller schools).
What I see with some of the players on the Iowa team is a lack of determination and work-ethic. The best players of the Ferentz era were all dedicated, hardworking players who demonstrated a willingness to listen, learn, and wait. The waiting is the most important factor in all of this, and I'll explain why.
Ferentz and Iowa are developmentally minded. When you come into the system, you have to learn your role, what's expected of you, and how to perform consistently. Until you can demonstrate that capacity, you wait your turn to play. When the opportunity to succeed and play arises, you step in and fulfill your role. Early on during Ferentz's tenure, he had some memorably stellar players that weren't necessarily the most highly talented or recruited coming out of high school.
Based off the success those players were able to achieve (think of Banks coming up #2 in the Heisman voting, the trip to the Orange Bowl in 2003, Drew Tate shouldering the team when AIRBHG struck in 2004, and the linebacking of Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway) the program was better able to recruit more talented players. The problem with recruiting talented players, is that they want to prove their talents in a timely manner. Many of them are looking at college as a means to the NFL and they want to make their impact known ASAP. Programs like Oregon, OSU, Michigan, Florida, and USC give talented players a chance to get on the field immediately and make an impact. Iowa (Ferentz) expects you to learn your role, and show you can be successful consistently before you can get on the field.
Due to the success on the recruiting trail, Iowa's depth chart had some talent on the bench, that could readily step-in as the "next man in." The two weakest position spots on Iowa's roster right now are RB and D-line. Why? In one word: attrition. Players left the team because they didn't want to wait to see playing time, or they ran into issues off-the-field. This put a gap in the developmental process, and you can see it manifesting itself on the field now. Take LB James Morris for example. Due to attrition of the linebackers his freshman year he was pressed into service before he was ready. He still hasn't risen to the level of success fans would like to see out of him, and I'm sure he's capable of. A question for thought though: would Morris have seen the field as a starter were it not for the injuries? How successful could he be now if he had time to develop his skills and talents to play his role on the defense? Attrition through injuries and disciplinary problems has the RB position is in shambles.
So what's the issue you ask? In a program like Iowa's, when there's attrition and players leaving the developmental process, it requires you to spend recruiting resources on replacing that player before you'd planned. Which essentially means doing the same job twice...which is inefficient (Think of the amount of RB recruits Iowa has brought in since 2008 and how those scholarships could've been used). The other option is to run with what you've got (Morris) and hope you're successful enough with that player to make it up later on the recruiting trail. Iowa has had a different starting RB at the start of the season for the last 4 years. There's no consistency to build on. In some ways, it's a testament to the recruiting abilities of Ferentz's staff, and the solid play of the O-line that the running game has been as effective as it has been over the last few years.
The biggest area that a lack of RB experience plays a part in: pass protection. Every time a back gets the protection scheme figured out, and learns how to pick-up the blitz, he's gone. Again, attrition either due to injury (Jewel Hampton), disciplinary reasons (Marcus Coker, Adam Robinson), or personal issues (Brandon Wegher) has created a gap in the developmental process, and makes it hard to improve year after year.
The recruiting trail is the first place to fix this. Recruit players who understand that in order to prove their ability to impact the team they need to learn their role, prove they can be consistent, and...wait for it...WAIT. Getting the right players with a combination of talent and work ethic isn't easy, but Ferentz has shown a bit of a knack for it. Look at players like Chad Greenway, Micah Hyde, and Marvin McNutt. What makes all three of these players alike? A willingness to change positions, and the work ethic to make a position change work. Greenway and McNutt were both recruited from the QB position in high school. Both changed positions in college and have entered the NFL in their new position. Hyde started the 2011 campaign as a safety, and was showing strides before his services at CB were sorely needed.
Iowa needs more players like that instead of players like A.J. Derby. Derby had a solid high school career as a QB. During the 2011 season, the coaching staff thought that he would be better suited for LB due to his size (he had played a bit of LB in high school as well). Derby disagreed. And rather than trust his coaches (the same ones that coached Greenway, McNutt, and several DBs into the NFL) he decided he knew better than they did. So after the season he announced his intention to transfer somewhere where he could play QB. Transfers from Iowa don't seem to fare that well after their time at Iowa (something to think about for any current players looking at potentially greener pastures).
All in all, this is fixable, and I think we'll see the benefits of some more good recruiting years this next season and after. The problems we've seen the last couple of years started back in 2008, so the recruitment process should be balanced out...it's just a matter of the players stepping up and making their presence felt on the field.
THE FINALE:
I'll say it again: the 2012 campaign was a severe disappointment, even as a rebuilding year goes. Ferentz will find himself on the hot-seat from fans that just a few years ago were scared he might bolt for the NFL if he doesn't improve the on-field product. He's got the tools to do it, but like every season, it's the intangibles that will determine success. Who will the new starting signal-caller be? Will Weisman find success in his bruising style? Will the D-line perform to their potential?
I make the prediction now that the 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes will be much improved over the 2012 team. Let's see if my faith is rewarded.
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